•    AGREEMENTS, POLICIES AND POTENTIAL MIGRATION

The signing of the 1994 Migration Agreements and their 1995 complementary agreement was aimed at stabilizing migration to the U.S., eliminating or at least reducing illegal migration, even though it does not cancel preferences to Cuban immigrants. The agreements have indeed established a control framework that has made it possible to regulate the process, yet the problem of illegal migration continues and will do so to the extent that conditions exist in the country of origin and the country of destination that stimulate it.

In keeping with U.S. policy the agreements themselves are preferential in that they establish a special immigration lottery for Cubans (Cubans may also participate in the regular international immigration lotteries). This preference is in addition to previous projects such as the Cuban Adjustment Law. It is important to stress this point since the aspects that receive the most attention and are the object of propaganda, thanks to the absolute control of the media, refer to internal conditions and problems in the island, which are undoubtedly a factor for emigration.

One of the measures established in the agreements is the granting by the U.S. of a minimum of 20,000 visas per year, according to selection criteria that allow it to obtain a timely and systematic diagnosis of the island's migration potential. According to some studies, Cuba's migration potential varies between a minimum of 490,000 and a maximum of 800,000 people. The educational level of those who intend to migrate tends to be relatively high, in fact, most are professionals and experts. This group includes mostly young men between 25 and 35 years of age, most of them white and a higher number of women than in the past. Most of them reside in Havana (65%), Villa Clara, Camagüey and Pinar del Río.

Even though all countries have a right to grant or deny entry to specific people or visitors, political manipulations in the granting of visas have destabilized migration flows between the U.S. and Cuba and continue to stimulate illegal and definitive emigration.

Today's Cuban society comprises other groups of people who may or may not be included in the migration potential and who are not as interested in definitive migration.

During the last decades, emigration flows have included both temporary and permanent emigrants, as well as large number of people who have visited countries where other Cubans reside (160,000 between 1995 and 1997).

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