AN ANLYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TRENDS

Marta Roig Vila
Population Division, United Nations.


Introduction

During the past few decades, the world has witnessed a very significant deregulation and easing of restrictions in the exchange of both goods and services. This has also been evidenced in the flow of capitals. Nevertheless, the movement of people is still subject to quite significant restrictions. Both economic theories and the general observation of processes underway point to the fact that the movement of goods and services is closely related to the movement of people. This can be a relationship that is complementary in nature, or else it can entail the substitution of one phenomenon by the other.

For instance, migration movements involve flows of remittances between countries. In turn, the international trade of certain services and the internationalization of production processes are subject to the migration of those who render the services and/or the consumers. Parallel to this, if it is true that the easing of trade restrictions has already reduced international differences with respect to prices and salaries, then the incentives that make people migrate should loose strength in the long term.

Nevertheless, assuming a relationship whereby the parties complement each other in the short term, and taking into account the boom evidenced in the fields of communications and transportation, most of the studies aimed at analysing the notion of globalization point out that, in the past few decades, there has been "an acceleration in migration movements" despite the barriers that exist in this respect. However, there are very few in-depth and systematic analyses about migration trends. The scarcity and the questionable quality of the existing data hinder these analyses. Most frequently, those analyses are based on isolated information related to a specific point in time, or even on hypotheses.

I. Data and Definitions

Describing migration trends at a world level is indeed a complex task, on account of several reasons. In the first place, many countries still lack the systems that are required for recording migration movements. Furthermore, not all the countries that do have those records process and publish the information that they obtain. In the second place, in the case of countries that do prepare that information, both their meaning and their scope, along with the criteria used for defining the phenomena, vary most considerably. The available information is not enough to study the causes and consequences of the migration phenomenon.

In starting, we might say that statistical sources of information on international migration are most varied and respond to different priorities. Some countries resort to administrative sources - such as population registries, foreigner registries, number of visas granted, residence permits, work permits, etc. - but they generally account for foreign citizens only. These sources keep a record of the time when the legal procedure is carried out, or when the visa or permit is granted (or renewed). Nevertheless, this administrative process does not necessarily coincide with the exact time when the migration takes place.

Other countries use information that is compiled in the borders. Although in theory this is the best way of measuring the flow of migrants, not many countries are able to achieve an adequate control of their borders. In general terms, the control of those who enter the country is far better than the control of those who leave the nation. Finally, a census and any other household surveys offer information about the number of international immigrants who are present in the country at the time of the survey. Even though, in general terms, they do not indicate when the migrants arrived at the country and, consequently, they do not inform about migration flows, they do offer a more homogenous and complete count of the number of migrants.

On the other hand, there is a lack of uniform criteria for defining an international migrant. The length of time the migrant stays in the country that welcomes him or her is one of the criteria that enable us to differentiate migrants from other individuals who are merely travelling internationally. However, some countries do not specify a minimum period of time an individual must stay in the country, or else be absent from the country, in order to be considered a migrant. Other countries use different time references and only some countries abide by the typology of temporary migrants, long-term migrants and permanent migrants that was recommended by the United Nations (United Nations, 1998a). Unfortunately, very few countries publish information about temporary migration movements and very few record the time when the migrant leaves the country, whatever the term granted by the residence or work permits.¹ In spite of this fact, the analyses of temporary migrations, of the rate of rotation of flows and the possible increase of households in two countries would also be a key element when studying the processes that are underway.

Legal aspects -such as the nationality and the reasons for coming to a country and residing in that nation- have to be coupled to this dimension of time. The role of the State is crucial in determining which individuals are international migrants. It is also very important for interpreting the statistical data that are available. Even though, from the demographic point of view, any person who does not reside in the country where he or she was born is a migrant, some countries only keep a record of the nationality of the individuals. Hence, the immigrants who acquire the nationality of the country where they reside are no longer included in these records.

II. A Global Perspective: Evolution in the Number of Migrants Worldwide, 1960-2000

In order to verify whether there is an "accelerated growth in migration movements", ideally there should be a complete count of annual or even monthly flows. In spite of this fact, most of the countries - particularly in the case of developed regions - do not have that information available. However, a census offers a good estimate of the total flows entering and leaving countries that have taken place during the inter-census period (normally 10 years). Based on the number of foreigners or individuals born abroad and that are listed in consecutive census, along with the information about the number of refugees in developing countries, the Population Division of the United Nations has been estimating the stock of international migrants by country since 1965².

These estimates (see Table 1) clearly indicate that the number of international migrants increased to 120 million in 1990, from 75 million in 1965. In other words, the number of migrants grew at an annual rate of 1.9%, a somewhat higher rate than that of the total growth of the world population -which was a 1.8 % annually during the same period (United Nations, 2001a).

Table 1
Number of International migrants by region, from 1965 to 1990

Source: United Nations (1996).


The increase in the total number of international arrivals of tourists is another element for comparison. The World Tourism Organization (1994) estimates that the number of tourists rose to 454 million in 1990, from 69 million in 1960, (a 6.3% annual growth rate). The total number of short-term movements -in this case, in the field of tourism- has been quite higher than that of international migrants, as reported in the census. However, while the growth in the number of tourists dropped (from 8.3% per annum in the decade of the sixties, to 4.6% annually in the eighties), the growth in the stock of immigrants did evidence an accelerated growth, as it went from 1.2 % annually in 1965-75, to the 2.6% per annum that was registered in the 1985-1990 five-year period.

The data available in the set of censuses that were carried out in the year 2000 suggest that this acceleration has further continued during the decade of the nineties. For instance, in the main receiving countries (Australia, Canada, United States and the countries of the European Union, except for France), the increase in the number of immigrants was higher during the decade of the nineties than during the eighties. When dealing with the United States, the number of immigrants increased at an annual rate of 3.7% between 1990 and 2000, as compared to the 3% growth that was recorded during the previous decade. The increase was also higher in some Latin American countries that have data available for the year 2000: Mexico (from 2.4% in the 1980s to 3.6% in the 1990s) and Panama (from 2.6% to 2.8%)³.

In other words, the number of immigrants has grown and it has done so at a faster pace than that of the population as a whole. In spite of this fact, the increase has not been as significant as the intensification evidenced in the trade of goods or the flow of capitals. Likewise, there is no justification whatsoever for referring to the end of the 20th century as "the era of migrations". In sum, only 2.3% of the world population was living outside the borders of their countries of origin, both in 1965 and in 1990. More than half of the total number of these migrants lived in developing countries. Furthermore, in most of the cases, the reason they had for migrating had nothing to do with economic considerations. Although there has been evidence of changes as to the volume or as to the characteristics of the migration phenomenon, they are only partially reflected in the global stock of migrants.

Another indicator of the evolution in migration movements could be the diversification of both origins and destinations (the "universalization" or worldwide nature of migration movements). The data that are available clearly point at the fact that the number of countries that have the highest proportions of immigrants has increased. In the year 1965, 90% of the immigrants lived in one of the 32 main receiving countries. In turn, in 1990, 90% of the immigrants were divided between 51 countries. In 1965, 12 countries had more than 15% of the population born abroad. In 1990, this total had gone to 26. However, the origins of these migrants had not diversified systematically. In most of the receiving countries, a constant or growing percentage of migrants still come from very few countries (see Table 2). As a conclusion of this, one might say that the total number of migrants is divided more equitably at a global level, though the majority of these migrants come from a limited number of countries.

Table 2
Percentage of immigrants from the three main countries of origin

Source: Database "South-to-North Migration", of the Population Division, Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, POP/DB/MIG/2001/2 (United Nations, 2001); OECD (2001).

The conclusion that the migration phenomenon might appear like an exception in the process of globalization could be derived from the fact that our observation period is relatively short. It could also be due to the fact that the effects of globalization are not unique, but rather depend on the geographic, political and economic context. In view of the fact that the recent growing economic integration is mostly evidenced at a regional level, it is also possible that each region has experienced opposite trends.

III. Regional Migration Trends

1. Migration Trends in the OECD Countries

In 1990, the OECD countries hosted almost 50% of international immigrants. One out of 13 citizens who lived in those countries had a foreign origin. Immigration followed a general trend that pointed at an increase in the main OECD receiving countries until the decade of the nineties (see Graphs 1 and 2)⁴. At the end of the 1970s and during the early 1980s, immigration figures decreased or remained unchanged in all the countries, except for the United States. These trends partly respond to restrictive immigration policies that were implemented in Europe in 1974. Nevertheless, they also reflect the impact of the economic crisis of the 1970s.

Chart 1
Immigration to Australia, Canada and the United States, 1970 to 1999

Source: Database "South-to-North Migration", of the Population Division, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs , POP/DB/MIG/2001/2 (United Nations, 2001).

Chart 2
Immigration to European countries, 1970-1999 (*)

A.

B.

Source: See Chart 1.
(*) Receiving countries have been divided in two groups according to the volumes of their migratory flows.

Throughout the decade of the eighties and until the mid-1990s, immigration figures increased in most of the OECD countries. The political changes in Eastern Europe and the resulting conflicts contributed considerably to this increase (see Section 4.b). The share of immigrants from Eastern Europe in the total number of immigrants significantly increased in all the countries (see Chart 3). At the end of the 1990s, there was evidence of a clear diversification of these trends. In the case of some countries, (Australia, Canada, United States, Germany), the downward trend was the result of more restricted asylum and immigration policies that were implemented. Furthermore, in the case of Germany mostly, this was also due to the end of war waged in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the political stabilization of other Eastern countries. Immigrants -particularly asylum-seekers- mostly go to countries such as France and the United Kingdom.

Chart 3
Immigrants by groups of countries of origin, 1970-74 to 1995-99

Source: See Chart 1.

As a conclusion, it might be said that the relative trend that points at the increase in the permanent or long-term immigration that was evidenced between 1970 and 1995-99 is strongly influenced by the political and economic situation that prevails in the receiving countries and the countries of origin. Available information does not enable us to state that it is a long-term trend. Most recent data rather point at a decrease in migration figures. Unfortunately, there is very limited information on short-lived migrations.

Table 3 contains data regarding temporary migrations in Germany and France. The number of temporary workers increased in both countries -in relative terms- during the first half of the 1990s. It is worthwhile noting that the composition of these temporary migration flows is quite heterogeneous. In Germany, the increase evidenced in seasonal immigration -which is only allowed in the case of the citizens of some countries of Eastern Europe- is mainly made up of unskilled workers in the hotel industry, restoration activities and agriculture. In the case of France, people who are admitted to the country with a temporary work contract are highly qualified workers, such as scientist, executives, engineers, authors and artists. Their number -though limited- has clearly increased during the past few years.

Table 3
Temporary immigrants
(thousands)

a- France

Source: Office des Migrations Internationales (1999), Annuaire des Migrations, 1998; OECD (2001).

b. Germany

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (2000), Statistisches Jahrbuch fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; OECD (various documents)
(*) With granted permissions.


When dealing with the possible diversification of both origins and destinations, Chart 3 clearly points at the fact that the share of immigrants coming from developing countries has only increased in the traditional immigration countries. In spite of this fact, a constant or growing share of migrants arrives from a limited number of developing countries. For instance, in the case of United States, the number of immigrants coming from the five main emigration countries⁵ rose to 40% in the 1990s, from 32% of the total in the 1970s. However, while in the year 1970, 90% of immigrants came from 29 countries, in 1990 the number of immigration countries increased to 51. In the case of Germany -the main receiving country in Europe- the share of immigrants coming from the three main immigrant countries⁶ has remained constant at 25%. However, while in 1970, 90% of immigrants came from 21 countries, the number of countries of origin increased to 46 in 1995. In other words, this means that the origins are diversified, though the highest flows are still taking place between a limited number of countries.

As to the destinations, North America still plays a key role as a receiving region. In spite of this, the number of destinations is also expanding in almost all the regions. Countries such as those of Southern Europe -which had traditionally been emigration countries- are now turning into immigration countries. In Africa, South Africa and Ivory Coast are gaining more significance as receiving countries. Likewise, a growing number of countries are receiving refugees (see Section 4.d). As regards Asia, the newly industrialized countries of the Pacific Rim and the oil producers of Western Asia are registering a growing number of entries (see Section 4.e).

2. International Migrations in Countries with Transition Economies

The experience in those countries with transition economies is quite peculiar in view of their recent political changes. Even though the information available on migration trends is quite limited, the Population Division has recently created a database that combines the information that is available in these countries with the data published by the receiving countries (United Nations, 2001b). The combination of political and economic changes, armed conflicts and the opening of borders following the collapse of communist regimes in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union prompted a considerable migration boom among countries undergoing transition processes, and subsequently from those countries in transition into market economy countries.

International migration movements -that had been practically prohibited during the communist era- were quite limited in almost all the countries of the region until the mid-1980s (See Table 4). Towards the end of this decade some countries started to make their migration policies more flexible. No less than 2 million people coming from Poland, Hungary and Eastern Germany migrated to the West (Europe and North America), as well as to Israel, between 1987 and 1989. During the first years of the transition, migration flows reached historical levels. Indeed, between 1990 and 1994, Western countries received at least 1 million migrants from the East per year. However, the most intense flows took place between the countries of East. Between 1.5 and 2 million people migrated across countries in Eastern Europe every year from 1990 to 1994. The disintegration of Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia considerably contributed to this increase. On the one hand, these migrations -that had only been internal to that date and that had not been controlled- started to be international. On the other hand, the transformation of these communist federations brought about ethnic tensions, wars and numerous displacements. However, these intense flows did not persist. The long-duration migration flows (more than 1 year or permanent) decreased after 1995, due to the fact that most of the main armed conflicts were solved and also to the tougher migration policies- specially those regarding asylum in the case of the receiving countries. In 1998, migrations from the East towards the West had dropped to at least one-third of the level they had reached in 1990.

Table 4
International migrations from countries with transition economies
(thousands)

Sources: Databases "International Migration from Countries with Economies in Transition 1980-2000", of the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, POP/DB/MIG/2001/1 and ESA/P/WP.166 (United Nations, 2001).

In other words, in this region, the migration boom was the consequence of unique and most precise historical events that are only indirectly related to the process of globalization. Available information suggests that this was a temporary boom. Several studies project that, even taking into account the future expansion of the European Union towards the East, migration flows might not significantly increase in the near future (Boeri, Brückner et al, 2001; Hille and Straubhaar, 2001).

Nevertheless, recent research suggests that while long- term migration has decreased, short-term displacements -i.e. the temporary and seasonal migrations and specially the so-called weekly or daily shuttle trips between neighbouring countries- have increased (Okolski, 1998; OECD, 2001). Even though, as has been already analysed in Section 2, the existing data do not enable us to analyse temporary flows and a considerable part of this information is quite irregular, this evolution would point to an important transformation in the migration phenomena, regardless of its total intensity.

3. Migration Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America had one of the lowest proportions of international migrants in the world. In 1990 it accounted for only 7.5 million international migrants (6.2% of the total migrants of the world). Most of migrants were mostly concentrated in countries as Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. These countries historically implemented policies in order to foster the migration coming from Europe. However since 1970, Brazil has not been an important destination for international migrants. On the other hand, Argentina and Venezuela have rather experienced an increase in the number of migrants coming from neighbouring countries. Starting in the decade of the 1970s, the emigration from Latin America -especially from Central America- started to intensify towards the United States and, to a lesser extent, towards Canada and Europe. The migration flows from Mexi